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A health-care reform Rorschach test Washington Post (blog)

23.04.10

I long ago learned that cost estimates are health-care reform's version of a Rorschach test: They tell you more about the reader than the bill. And the early reaction to the latest estimates (pdf) out of the Center for Medicaid and Medicare Services are no different. So here's what you need to know.

First, be clear about what's being estimated. The Congressional Budget Office's estimates look at the deficit. CMS is looking at total national health expenditures. This often confuses people into thinking that there's conflict between the two sets of numbers when there isn't: CBO says that federal spending is going to go up to pay for the coverage expansion, but that savings and revenue will go up by even more, leading to a net reduction in the federal deficit.

CMS is looking only at the spending side. And here's what it finds: In 2019, implementation of the Affordable Care Act will reduce the ranks of the uninsured by 34 million people and increase nation health expenditures by 1 percent.

Source:

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